3 Negatives And 1 Ginormous Positive
There are three negative inputs to the current market action.And one ginormous positive.From my seat, the positive gives the bulls an edge.
Seekingalpha · 10/27 18:24
Risks For A Double-Dip Recession May Weigh On Stocks
It seems there will be no stimulus anytime soon.Depending on the election, it may be months before a new one is agreed.This a risk that has not been priced into the market yet.
Seekingalpha · 10/27 17:19
Expect The Market To Be Weak For The Rest Of The Year (Technically Speaking For 10/27)
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is pointing towards more growth.South Korea has emerged from its recession.The weekly charts for the larger indexes show double-tops, which probably means the 4Q20 will be a tough trading environment.
Seekingalpha · 10/27 15:00
The Perfect Storm
We have a perfect storm on the horizon that is approaching fast.Election turmoil, another wave of the pandemic, and an economy absent needed stimulus are the three fronts of this storm.The market implications between now and year end are a correction at best and another bear-market decline at worst.
Seekingalpha · 10/23 11:32
The Recession Is Over, But Don't Get Too Excited
With record economic growth and hiring this summer, we may soon learn that the recession is already technically over.But the end of the recession doesn’t mean the economy has recovered, only that the worst is behind us in terms of lost economic output, income, and jobs.Expect the recovery in GDP to take another year, while regaining the lost jobs to take closer to two years. Getting back to the former trajectory will take longer still.Investors should be mindful that the path forward will be slow and uneven, even after the recession is declared to be over.
Seekingalpha · 10/23 09:34
One Table And 2 Charts Show Why Stocks Are A Bad Place To Be
This is probably the first recession that inflated rather than popped financial asset bubbles.Panicked governments and central banks are dumping trillions of play-money dollars into the system, a big part of which flow directly into the brokerage accounts of the 1%.Another effect of long equity bull markets is a growing population of companies that are only viable in the easiest of easy money environments.
Seekingalpha · 10/23 07:26
Revised Data Show Initial Claims Plateauing
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance totaled 787,000 for the week ending October 17, down 55,000 from the previous week's revised tally of 842,000.The number of ongoing claims for state unemployment programs totaled 8.982 million for the week ending October 3, down 1.22 million from the prior week.The total number of people claiming benefits in all unemployment programs including all emergency programs was 23.150 million for the week ended October 3, down 1.046 million from the prior week.
Seekingalpha · 10/23 07:14
Capitalizing On Market Uncertainties
What the VIX futures are telling us.What the market is telling us about election expectations.Using options to take advantage of market uncertainties.
Seekingalpha · 10/23 06:26
Sales And Inventories
The flip side to this is that what we are seeing is catchup purchases by consumers and inventory repletion by businesses.I'm of the opinion what we are seeing is simply a snapback in spending due to repressed demand but these levels will fall.A certain level of inventory is always required to run an efficient goods-to-consumer pipeline.
Seekingalpha · 10/23 06:12
149 Years Of Higher Returns For Lower Risk
Historical data on average one-year, five-year and fifteen-year returns for the S&P 500 since 1871, with all dividends continuously reinvested.Historical data on the range of returns for one-year, five-year and fifteen-year holding periods.History’s shocking surprise about risk and returns.
Seekingalpha · 10/23 04:46
Trying To Understand This Weird Economic Recovery
We've clearly never been here before - no one has ever tried to lock down an economy then restart it again. We thus don't know how it all works, we're hoping.We have a decent enough basic structure to use as a logical base but there are definitely things we still don't know in any detail.Further, we've definitely got a change in what we can do and how as well as in just a recession.
Seekingalpha · 10/23 00:28
Sector PMIs Reveal Divergence In COVID-19 Recovery
Five of the eight broad PMI sectors showed signs of recovery from July.Technology and Consumer Services lag, while Telecommunications Services sees second downturn.Consumer Services, Telecommunications Services, Industrials and Financials likely to be hit hardest by further lockdowns.
Seekingalpha · 10/22 12:01
Greenback Stabilizes
The dollar is consolidating yesterday's losses.Equities are lower, and benchmark yields are little changed.The S&P 500 is trading a little lower following yesterday's 0.2% decline.Gold rose almost 1% yesterday, the most in a couple of weeks, on the back of the weaker dollar.WTI for December delivery slumped 4% yesterday and slipped below the $40-mark and straddled today.
Seekingalpha · 10/22 11:32
The Impact Of Today's Low-Interest Rate Environment On Investors
In response to the global COVID-19 recession, central banks across the world unleashed synchronized monetary stimulus to backstop the economy.With the lack of inflation pressure, and higher tolerance for inflation overshoots, central banks globally are likely to keep interest rates low for a long time.Today’s low-interest rate environment creates some challenges for investors looking for adequate returns through bonds, but great opportunities for borrowers and equity investors.
Seekingalpha · 10/22 10:48
An End To The Idea Of Fiscal Austerity
The cry is almost unanimous around the world - governments, in this age of pandemic and economic recession, must open up the government spigots and stimulate their economies.The "shock" of the coronavirus pandemic, throwing economies into recession and creating financial distress, seems to be the culmination of sixty years of credit inflation.The next five years or so, will be a time of rebuilding, both the economy and the ideas about how the economy works, so that we may construct better policies.
Seekingalpha · 10/22 10:00
The Market Is Pricing A Biden Win: Dillian
Investors whose sole focus is on returns fail because they don’t structure a portfolio that properly accounts for risk.Growth in America has been going down over time, due in part to both demographics and regulation; going forward, we’re unlikely to see GDP numbers above 3%.We can’t see what’s on the other side of the election, and two weeks from now things could be different, but right now, the market is pricing a Biden win.
Seekingalpha · 10/22 03:26
Do U.S. Elections Matter For Equity Investors?
Investors are anxious as the US elections draw near.Political risk often makes headline news.Post-election implications are hard to predict.
Seekingalpha · 10/21 19:00
Herd Mentality
Easy money doesn't reliably support stocks when investors are inclined toward risk-aversion.Saying that the Fed has disabled previously reliable limits to speculation doesn't mean embracing risk regardless of observable market conditions.A material retreat in valuations coupled with an improvement in market internals would encourage a strongly favorable outlook.A good valuation measure is nothing but shorthand for a proper discounted cash flow analysis.
Seekingalpha · 10/21 12:11
Dollar Slumps As Yields Rise
The dollar is falling against most of the world's currencies today.Sterling and the Norwegian krone are leading the majors higher.The Chinese yuan extended its gains and is now at the best level since July 2018.In Asia, most of the large markets gained, but China, India, and a handful of smaller bourses were sold.Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off for the third day and the sixth session in the past seven.
Seekingalpha · 10/21 12:02
Chart Of The Week - S&P 500 P/E Ratio
Through one of the most volatile years on record, the S&P 500 has managed to record a total return of 9.4% year to date.With fears of a second COVID-19 wave and a contentious U.S. election ahead, uncertainty remains at record levels.According to Refinitiv Datastream, 67% of S&P 500 constituents are trading above their historical 10-year average forward P/E.
Seekingalpha · 10/21 07:42
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